In late February, as Hezbollah attacked Israel at Iran’s behest, Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri issued a rare rebuke. He was reportedly “shocked” by Hezbollah’s actions. A few days later, he wielded his political power against the group and refrained from blocking Lebanon’s decision to ban Hezbollah’s military arm.
Berri is the leader of the Amal Movement, a Shiite political party that together with Hezbollah has composed a Shiite duopoly in Lebanon since the 1980s. Berri had reportedly been assured by Hezbollah that it wouldn’t intervene in the United States and Israel’s conflict with Iran and plunge Lebanon into another war. And yet Hezbollah did, shaking the Shiite alliance.
The ban on Hezbollah’s military arm has not yet led to disarmament of the group or stopped the war, but it did display national cohesion. This led to speculation that the Amal Movement might be ready to break from the group and forge a separate path for the Lebanese Shiite community, one that strengthens the state and isolates Hezbollah.
Berri, however, is a master of doublespeak. While he has created the impression that he might be distancing himself from Hezbollah, he has also continued to guard the group’s interests and provided it with the cover needed to continue bombing Israel and remain armed. He called for a “calm and consensual dialogue” to discuss “the fate” of Hezbollah’s weapons—not for prompt disarmament.
“Berri benefits from Hezbollah and its arms; [the Amal Movement] cannot win elections without them,” Hanin Ghaddar, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said. “He will not withdraw support from Hezbollah unless it’s in his interest.”
The key question for Berri and the Amal Movement is whether to stick with Hezbollah or finally coalesce Lebanon’s Shiite community under the Amal Movement. That calculation will depend on a multitude of factors, including the extent of Shiite dissatisfaction with Hezbollah. Israeli bombing has displaced more than a million Lebanese since the start of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.
Berri might also be the one man who can keep the Shiites within the Lebanese fold, and Lebanon united, as calls for federalization (that is, splitting the country along sectarian lines) grow.
“There are growing calls for federalism in Lebanon, and even for partition in some cases,” Sami Nader, a Lebanese political analyst, said. “More and more Christians and Sunnis are now saying they want federalism, a kind of separation. … They say [of Hezbollah]: If you want to keep your arms, keep your army, keep it in your region. You cannot force us to align with Iran.”
Berri, however, has taken a more conciliatory line on engagement with Israel. On March 9, he rejected Lebanese President Joseph Aoun’s call for direct talks with Israel to resolve the escalating conflict with Iran. He only stepped aside after Israel bombed areas in Lebanon heavily populated by Amal Movement supporters on April 8.
“Amal-controlled neighborhoods were hit, including Berri’s headquarters,” Ghaddar said. “A number of Amal members were killed. … This was Israel’s message to Berri: Stop helping Hezbollah.” Ghaddar later shared a poster with photos of the killed Amal Movement members with Foreign Policy.
But Berri hasn’t yet made up his mind, and he appears to be hedging rather than aligning one way or another. If there is a decisive outcome to the United States and Israel’s war with Iran, and the latter agrees to Hezbollah’s disarmament as part of a grand bargain with Washington, Berri stands ready to dominate the Shiite community in Lebanon. Or, if the Lebanese Shiites themselves turn against Hezbollah and blame the group for the loss of life and property in southern Lebanon, Berri can present his party as a more reasonable replacement.
“The Shiites have started to say Hezbollah made a mistake by attacking Israel,” said Ali Mourad, a Lebanese scholar and political activist who ran as an anti-establishment opposition candidate in the country’s 2022 parliamentary elections. But the effect of the conflict on the Shiite duopoly is unclear.
For now, Berri is betting on Hezbollah. The current impasse between the United States, Israel, and Iran is widely seen as an Iranian success, which has in turn sustained Hezbollah. And the Shiite community hasn’t yet decisively rejected the militia.
“The community won’t abandon Hezbollah overnight,” Mourad said. “Look at others. Walid Jumblatt didn’t do well in the [Lebanese] Civil War. But he is still the leader of the Druze. Samir Geagea, the former militia commander, is still the leader of the Lebanese Forces and many Christians.” Nonetheless, Lebanese Shiites, whose homes lie in debris and whose lives are torn apart, are beginning to challenge Hezbollah’s victory narrative, Mourad said.
“There is no doubt that the losses Hezbollah has suffered are significant and the cost to the Shiite community is enormous,” Mourad said. “They are worse off than any time in their recent history.”
Berri was born in Sierra Leone but soon moved to southern Lebanon. In the 1970s, he began following Shiite stalwart Musa al-Sadr, who started the Movement of the Deprived, to uplift the Shiite community in Lebanon; it was later re-named the Amal Movement. Sadr mysteriously disappeared in Libya in 1978, and in 1980 Berri took the mantle. Since then, he has shaped the movement.
Early on during Berri’s leadership of the Amal Movement, Israel was trying to eliminate the threat and challenge posed by Palestinian Liberation Organization fighters who were based in Lebanon. This put Berri and the PLO organization at odds. “Militants used to flee after firing their rockets, and Israel would step in and destroy southern [Lebanese] villages with its artillery and jets,” he reportedly said.
In a way, the events now are reminiscent of that era. But today, the Palestinian Liberation Organization’s rockets aren’t the ones causing trouble; Hezbollah’s are.
Intra-sectarian violence has always been taboo among the historically marginalized Shiites in Lebanon. But Berri nevertheless has a history of fighting Hezbollah tooth and nail for dominance. The so-called “War of the Brothers” during the 1980s left many dead and the community scarred.
Violence is considered especially counterproductive among Shiites at a time when the community feels besieged at home and in the region. Berri is aware of these sensibilities and described earlier clashes with Hezbollah as a “dark era,” in memoirs published in 2004.
“Yes, Hezbollah is facing major anger from within the Shiite community, but my sense is that this will slowly be absorbed in light of the fact that the community feels besieged, isolated, an[d] rejected at home,” Michael Young, a Lebanese political expert, posted on the social platform X. “Hezbollah may ultimately benefit from this deep sense of anxiety. Lebanon’s sectarian politics can hold many surprises.”
As talks between the United States and Iran flounder and the Israel-Lebanon cease-fire spares Beirut but not Shiite-dominated southern Lebanon, Berri is holding his cards close to his chest. “I will not speak for now; but when the negotiations [with Israel] end, I will have something to say,” Berri told Al-Akhbar, an Arabic-language newspaper.
However, while the Lebanese government wants to lead negotiations with Israel directly and has spoken of them as a sovereign matter, Berri said any agreement must be under a “Saudi-Iranian-American umbrella.” He appears for now to be intent, above all, on presenting himself as Lebanon’s most important domestic interlocutor.
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The talks between the neighboring countries are about defeating their mutual enemy.
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